Hart Trophy Betting Odds Explained: How NHL MVP Futures Work, What the Prices Really Mean, and When to Bet

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · By the BetHubCA Editorial Team

Every October, sportsbooks post a long list of names with prices next to them for the Hart Trophy, the NHL's most valuable player award. Your buddy grabs the league's biggest star at a short price, someone else takes a long shot at 40-to-1, and then everybody forgets about it until June. If you want to do better than that, you need to know how the award is actually decided, how to read the odds, and why futures markets are some of the most expensive bets on the board. Let's walk through it together.

Ground rules first: 19+ in most provinces, 18+ in Manitoba and Quebec. This site doesn't serve Ontario or Alberta residents. Cloudbet, which we link to, holds a Curaçao licence and is not authorized by any Canadian province. Every price on this page is an illustrative example, not a live line, and nothing here is a pick on any player.

What the Hart Trophy is

The Hart Memorial Trophy goes to the player judged most valuable to his team during the NHL regular season. It's one of the oldest individual awards in hockey, and Wayne Gretzky holds the record for the most wins. The key words are "most valuable to his team." That's not the same as "most points" or "best player," and that gap is exactly where betting opportunities and traps live.

A few basics every bettor should know:

• Regular season only. Playoff performance doesn't count. Ballots are cast before or around the end of the regular season.
• It's a vote, not a stat. Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association fill out ranked ballots, and higher places earn more points.
• Finalists are announced first, then the winner is revealed at the NHL Awards, usually in June.
• Any position can win, but forwards win most often. Goalies and defencemen win only now and then. Carey Price's win for Montreal is a well-known example of a goalie taking it.

Don't mix it up with the Ted Lindsay Award, which is voted on by the players themselves, or the Art Ross Trophy, which simply goes to the regular-season points leader.

How Hart Trophy odds are written

You'll see a list like this before the season starts (illustrative names replaced with labels so nobody mistakes it for a tip):

American odds like +300 mean a C$100 bet returns C$300 profit. In decimal, that's 4.00: your C$10 comes back as C$40 total. Implied probability is just 1 divided by the decimal price. Our odds calculator converts any of these instantly.

The futures margin: why these bets are expensive

Here's the part most people never check. If you add up the implied probabilities of every name on a Hart board, you won't get 100%. You'll often get 130%, 150% or even more. That extra is the book's built-in margin, and on futures it's much bigger than on a single NHL game.

Why so big?

• Books have to price dozens of outcomes and can't be sure who'll get hurt or break out.
• Money sits with the book for months, and they charge for that.
• Fans love betting long shots on their favourite players, so books shorten those prices.

Removing the margin (the simple way)

Say the whole board adds up to 140%. To get a rough "fair" probability for a player, divide his implied probability by 1.40.

• Superstar A at 4.00: 25.0% ÷ 1.40 ≈ 17.9% fair, so a fair price would be about 5.60.
• Defenceman D at 16.00: 6.3% ÷ 1.40 ≈ 4.5% fair, or about 22.2.

Books usually load more margin onto long shots than favourites, so this simple method is only a starting point. Still, it tells you the price you're being offered is a lot shorter than it looks. If your honest estimate for a player is 18% and the book's price implies 25%, you're overpaying.

What Hart voters tend to reward

Since it's a vote, you're really betting on how a group of writers will think next spring. Over the years, a few patterns show up again and again. They aren't rules, but they help.

1. Huge offensive numbers

Points still drive most Hart conversations. A forward who leads the league by a wide margin is hard to ignore. That's why the Art Ross race and the Hart race often overlap, though not always.

2. The team usually makes the playoffs

Voters have historically leaned toward players whose teams reach the postseason. A brilliant season on a team that finishes near the bottom can still get votes, but it usually takes something extraordinary to win.

3. "Value to the team" story

A player who drags a thin roster into a playoff spot often gets more credit than a star on a stacked team. When everyone says "imagine that team without him," that's the narrative voters respond to.

4. Games played

Missing a big chunk of the season is a real problem. Even if a player's per-game numbers are amazing, voters tend to punish a long injury absence. Check the injury history and the player's typical games played before you bet.

5. Milestones and "historic" seasons

Round numbers and record chases make headlines, and headlines shape votes. A player on pace for a historic total tends to see his odds drop fast, often faster than his real chances justify.

Timing: when to bet the Hart

The price you get depends a lot on when you bet.

One useful habit: think about what has to go right for a player to win, then ask if the current price gives you enough reward for all those things to happen. In October, it's a long list. In March, it's short, and the price reflects that.

A worked example in Canadian dollars

Let's say before the season you think a star winger has about a 9% chance of winning the Hart. The book offers 13.00 (+1200), which implies 7.7%.

Expected value on a C$10 bet:

0.09 × C$120 profit − 0.91 × C$10 = C$10.80 − C$9.10 = +C$1.70

On paper, that's a decent edge. But think about what comes with it:

• You'll lose this bet about 91% of the time.
• Your C$10 is tied up for about eight months.
• If he misses 20 games with an injury in November, the bet is basically dead.

That's why award futures should be small, fun-sized bets. Even with a real edge, the variance is huge.

Spreading your money: one name or a few?

Some bettors back two or three players at longer prices instead of one favourite. That's fine as long as each bet is value on its own. Let's check the maths with illustrative numbers:

"Net if he wins" subtracts the C$10 you lost on the other two. If none of them wins, you're down C$15. Spreading money doesn't remove the margin; it just gives you more tickets. Only do it if you'd be happy with each ticket alone.

Hedging and cashing out

If you grabbed a player at 20.00 in October and he's 3.00 in March, you're sitting on a valuable ticket. You have options:

• Hold and let it ride to June.
• Cash out if your book offers it. Cash-out prices include extra margin, so compare with what a manual hedge would give you.
• Hedge by betting the main rival. If there's a clear two-horse race, a bet on the other player can lock in profit either way.

Example: C$10 on Player A at 20.00 (C$200 return). Late in the season, Player B is the only real rival at 2.50. Bet C$80 on B: if A wins you collect C$200 − C$80 − C$10 = +C$110; if B wins you collect C$200 on that bet − C$80 stake − C$10 = +C$110. Locked. If a third player could still sneak in, you're not fully covered. Our guide on hedging bets goes deeper.

Other NHL award markets

If you like the Hart, you'll see similar boards for other awards. They work differently, so know what you're betting on:

Stat-based awards like the Art Ross are easier to model: you can project points per game and games played. Voted awards like the Hart add a layer of human opinion. Neither is easy, but they're very different puzzles. For more on season-long hockey markets, see our pages on Stanley Cup odds and NHL draft betting odds.

Head-to-head and special markets

Some books offer "Player X vs Player Y: who finishes higher in Hart voting" or "Player to be a Hart finalist." These can be more interesting than the outright market because you only need to compare two players or beat a lower bar. They also tend to carry big margins, so add up both sides before betting. Our explainer on what a prop bet is covers how to read these special markets.

Canadian fan bias

Canadian teams have a huge fan base, and books know it. When a star on a Canadian club gets hot, his Hart price can drop fast because fans across the country pile in. That doesn't mean the price is always wrong. It means you should double-check it against your own estimate, especially if you're a fan of that team. Our guide to Oilers Stanley Cup odds talks about the same effect on team futures.

Rules and settlement details

• Bets usually settle when the official winner is announced, not when finalists are named.
• If a player is traded, the bet normally stands, since the award is for the season.
• If the season is shortened, most books still settle on whoever wins the award, but check the house rules on cancelled seasons.
• No refunds for injuries. If your player is hurt in November, the ticket rides on.

Common Hart Trophy betting mistakes

• Betting the points leader in October. The season is long, and early leaders often fade or get hurt.
• Ignoring the playoff factor. A great player on a struggling team is a tougher sell to voters.
• Forgetting the margin. Futures boards can add up to 140% or more. The price is rarely as generous as it looks.
• Staking too much. These are long-term, high-variance bets. Treat them as small fun tickets.
• Mixing up awards. The Hart is not the Art Ross or the Ted Lindsay. Know who votes and on what.
• Chasing hype. A three-game point streak shouldn't change your view of a whole season.

A simple Hart betting plan

1. Before the season, list the 8 to 10 players you think have a real shot.
2. Give each a rough probability. Make sure your numbers add up to less than 100% (leave room for surprises).
3. Compare with the book's prices and look for gaps of a few percentage points or more.
4. Bet small, like 0.5% to 1% of your bankroll per ticket.
5. Check again around 25 games in, when hot and cold starts may have moved prices too far.
6. Late in the season, think about hedging if you hold a short-priced ticket.

Crypto and Canadian dollars

If you bet with crypto on an offshore book, remember your bet could sit there for months. The coin's price can move a lot in that time, so think about every futures bet in Canadian dollars. A stablecoin keeps that simpler. Cloudbet typically asks for stronger ID checks once cumulative deposits reach about US$2,200, and any book can ask for documents when you withdraw. Provincial sites (PlayNow in BC, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Loto-Québec, and Atlantic Canada's products) are the regulated option where available. Our page on whether online betting is legal in Canada explains it honestly, and our tax guide covers what happens if you win big.

Keep it fun

An MVP ticket is a nice way to add some extra interest to a long NHL season. Keep it small, and don't let it turn into chasing. If betting stops being fun, reach out: Gambling Support BC at 1-888-795-6111 or Jeu : aide et référence in Quebec at 1-800-461-0140. More helplines are on our responsible gambling page.

My take

Hart Trophy odds are fun to follow but expensive to bet. Learn how the vote works, remember it's about value to the team in the regular season, strip out the futures margin before you decide a price is good, and pay attention to timing. Small stakes, honest estimates, and a willingness to hedge late are what make award betting work over the long run.