NHL Moneyline Betting Explained: How to Read the Odds, Overtime Rules, Favourites vs Underdogs and Real Maths (Canada Guide)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · By the BetHubCA Editorial Team

The moneyline is the first NHL bet almost everybody makes. You pick the team you think wins the game, and that's it. No spread, no goal lines, no stats to track. But those little numbers beside each team, the -150 and the +130, trip up a lot of people, and the overtime and shootout rules quietly change what you're actually betting on. So let's go through it properly, the way I'd explain it to a buddy at the rink before he puts twenty bucks on his team: what the numbers mean, how to turn them into a percentage, when a favourite is worth backing, when an underdog is, and the handful of habits that keep moneyline betting fun instead of expensive.

Quick ground rules before we start. The legal betting age is 19 in most provinces and 18 in Manitoba and Quebec, and this site isn't for residents of Ontario or Alberta. Cloudbet, the book linked on this page, holds a Curaçao licence and is not authorized by any Canadian province. For the legal background, read is online betting legal in Canada. Every team, price, percentage and stake below is an illustrative example to show the method. Nothing here is a real line or a pick.

The short version

• A moneyline bet is a bet on who wins the game. The score margin doesn't matter.
• A minus sign means favourite: -150 means you risk $150 to win $100.
• A plus sign means underdog: +130 means a $100 bet wins $130.
• Most NHL moneylines include overtime and the shootout. Check your book's rules, because a 60-minute (three-way) bet is a different market.
• Every price is a percentage in disguise. Convert it, remove the margin, and compare it with your own estimate.
• The confirmed starting goalie moves NHL prices more than almost anything else. Wait for it when you can.
• Small differences in price add up. Shopping for -135 instead of -145 can turn a losing habit into a break-even one.

What is a moneyline bet in hockey?

A moneyline is the simplest bet there is. Two teams, two prices, and you pick the winner. If your team wins 1-0 in a goalie duel or 7-6 in a track meet, you get paid the same. If it loses by one goal or by five, you lose the same.

In hockey that simplicity matters, because hockey is a low-scoring sport. A lot of games are decided by a single goal, an empty-netter late in the third period, or a shootout. Point-spread style bets (the puck line) exist, but they behave very differently from the moneyline because of how close NHL games tend to be. For a lot of bettors, the moneyline is the cleanest way to back an opinion about who's the better team tonight.

Here's what a typical NHL moneyline looks like on a betting site:

The home team is the favourite, and the away team is the underdog. Many Canadian bettors see American odds on North American sports, even though decimal odds are common on international books. You can usually switch the display in your account settings. I'll use both throughout, because you'll run into both.

How to read American moneyline odds

American odds are all built around $100.

• Negative numbers (favourites): the number is how much you need to risk to win $100. At -150, you risk $150 to win $100. Your total return is $250 (your $150 back plus $100 profit).
• Positive numbers (underdogs): the number is how much you win on a $100 bet. At +130, a $100 bet wins $130. Your total return is $230.
• Even money is shown as +100 (sometimes "EV" or -100). You win the same amount you risk.

Of course, you don't have to bet $100. Everything scales. A $20 bet at -150 wins $13.33. A $20 bet at +130 wins $26.

Converting American odds to decimal

Decimal odds show your total return per $1, stake included. The conversion is simple:

• For a negative price: decimal = 1 + (100 ÷ the number without the minus sign). So -150 is 1 + 100/150 = 1.667.
• For a positive price: decimal = 1 + (the number ÷ 100). So +130 is 1 + 130/100 = 2.30.

Converting odds to implied probability

This is the step that changes how you bet. Every price is the book's way of saying how likely something is. To get the percentage:

• For a negative price: implied % = number ÷ (number + 100). So -150 is 150 ÷ 250 = 60.0%.
• For a positive price: implied % = 100 ÷ (number + 100). So +130 is 100 ÷ 230 = 43.5%.
• With decimal odds, it's just 100 ÷ decimal. So 2.30 is 100 ÷ 2.30 = 43.5%.

Here's a quick reference table for common NHL moneyline prices, including what a $20 bet would win:

If you don't want to do this in your head, our odds calculator converts American, decimal and fractional prices and shows the implied chance instantly.

The margin: why both sides add up to more than 100%

Take that example game again: home -150 (60.0%) and away +130 (43.5%). Add them up and you get 103.5%. In a fair world, two outcomes that cover every possibility would add up to exactly 100%. The extra 3.5% is the book's margin, also called the vig, juice or overround. It's how the book makes money no matter who wins.

To find the "fair" chance the price is really pointing to, divide each implied percentage by the total:

So this market thinks the home team wins about 58% of the time. If your own honest estimate is 62%, the home side at -150 looks interesting. If your estimate is 55%, it's a pass, and the underdog might be the side worth a closer look.

A rule of thumb: NHL moneyline margins on mainstream games are often in the 3% to 5% range, while smaller books or less popular markets can be wider. The lower the margin, the less you're paying every time you bet.

Overtime and shootouts: what does the moneyline actually cover?

This is the single most important rule to understand, and it's where a lot of new bettors get burned. At most books, the standard NHL moneyline includes overtime and the shootout. Whoever is credited with the win in the official result wins the bet. There's no draw, so it's a two-way market.

Here's how NHL games are decided:

Because the regular-season overtime is three-on-three and then a shootout, the extra time is close to a coin flip in many games. The better team still has an edge, but a much smaller one than it had over 60 minutes. That matters for favourites.

We've got a separate page on whether NHL bets include overtime, which goes market by market. The short answer: moneylines usually do, puck lines and totals usually do as well, and anything labelled "60 minutes", "regulation time" or "3-way" does not. Always read the market rules on your betting site, because terms differ.

Moneyline vs the 60-minute (three-way) bet

Many books also offer a 60-minute market with three outcomes: home win in regulation, draw (tied after 60 minutes), or away win in regulation. Because there's a third outcome, each team's price is longer than on the moneyline. Here's an illustrative example:

If you assume overtime and the shootout are a straight 50/50, the fair moneyline works out to: home 41.9% + half of 23.0% = 53.4% (fair decimal about 1.87), and away 35.1% + half of 23.0% = 46.6% (about 2.15). That's a handy way to check whether a moneyline is in line with the same book's three-way market, or with another book's.

When does the 60-minute bet make sense? Mostly when you think a team is clearly better over 60 minutes but you don't want to rely on a three-on-three lottery or a shootout. The price is longer, but you lose if the game goes to overtime, even if your team wins it. It's a different bet, not a better one.

A simple model: where moneyline prices come from

You don't need a fancy model to bet moneylines, but it helps to see how goals turn into win chances. Hockey goals are rare events, and a common starting point is to treat each team's goal count as a Poisson process. Suppose you expect the home team to score 3.2 goals over 60 minutes and the away team 2.8. Those numbers are made up for the example. A quick script gives:

Now give the home team a small edge in overtime and the shootout, say 52%. The home moneyline chance is 48.1% + (16.5% × 0.52) = 56.7%, which is a fair price of about 1.76 decimal (roughly -131). The away side is 43.3%, about 2.31 (+131).

Compare that with a posted line of -150 / +130. On this model the home team at -150 needs 60% to break even, and the model only gives it 56.7%, so the favourite is overpriced. The away team at +130 needs 43.5%, and the model gives 43.3%, which is basically break-even before you account for any edge in your inputs. Neither side is a bet on these numbers. That's a normal outcome. Most games, most nights, don't offer value, and that's fine.

The model also shows the shape of NHL results. Here's how often each final margin shows up in regulation on those inputs:

The one-goal and tied results are the biggest slices, which is exactly why the moneyline and the puck line feel so different. In real games, trailing teams pull their goalie late, so empty-net goals push some one-goal games out to two. A plain Poisson model understates that, but it's still a useful starting point.

Moneyline vs puck line: which should you bet?

The puck line is hockey's version of a point spread, almost always set at 1.5 goals. The favourite at -1.5 has to win by two or more. The underdog at +1.5 covers if it wins outright or loses by exactly one.

Using the same model, the home team wins by two or more in regulation about 32.1% of the time. Overtime and shootout wins are always by one goal, so they don't help the -1.5 side. That means the away team +1.5 covers about 67.9% of the time on these inputs (more like a bit less once you add empty-netters).

Neither bet is automatically better. The moneyline wins more often and pays less. The puck line pays more and loses every one-goal win. If you like a heavy favourite but hate laying -250, the puck line is one way to get a better price, as long as you're honest that you're now betting on a two-goal win. Our full NHL puck line guide goes deeper on when each makes sense.

Break-even percentages: the number every moneyline bettor should know

The break-even percentage for a price is just its implied probability. If you win more often than that over a long run, you make money. If you win less, you lose. Here's what that means in practice, using a $100 bet each time:

The formula behind the last column is: expected profit = (your chance × profit if it wins) − (chance it loses × your stake). For -150 with a real chance of 65%: 0.65 × $66.67 − 0.35 × $100 = +$8.33.

The flip side is just as important. Lay -150 on a team that really wins 55% of the time and you lose about $8.33 per $100 over the long run. Favourites feel safe because they win often, but "wins often" and "profitable" are not the same thing.

Favourites vs underdogs: the honest picture

There's a long-running debate among hockey bettors about whether you should mostly back favourites or underdogs. The truth is boring: you should back whichever side is priced wrong. But there are a few things worth knowing about each.

Backing favourites

• You win more often, so the ride feels smoother.
• Every loss costs more than a win pays, so a short losing streak can wipe out a long run of small wins.
• Popular teams are often overbet. In Canada, the Maple Leafs, Canadiens and Oilers draw huge amounts of fan money, and prices can reflect that.
• Overtime and shootouts drag favourites toward 50/50, which is part of why NHL favourites lose more often than people expect.

Backing underdogs

• Hockey is high-variance. A hot goalie can steal a game from a much better team, which keeps underdogs alive.
• You'll lose more often than you win, which is mentally tough even when the maths is on your side.
• Losing streaks are normal. At +150 with a true 40% chance, losing six or seven in a row will happen from time to time.

How long it takes for an edge to show up

Here's a sobering table. Say you have a genuine edge in two different styles: an underdog bettor at +150 who really wins 42% of the time (+$5 per $100), and a favourite bettor at -150 who really wins 62% of the time (about +$3.33 per $100). Using exact binomial maths, here's the chance each is still behind after a given number of $100 bets:

Even with a real edge, roughly one in three of these bettors is still down after 100 bets. That's not a reason to give up. It's a reason to bet small, keep records, and judge yourself on whether you're getting good prices, not on last week's results.

What actually moves NHL moneylines

The starting goalie

No position in sport swings a single game like an NHL goalie. When a team's number one is resting and the backup starts, the moneyline can shift a lot. Teams usually confirm starters on game day, and morning skate reports give clues.

An example of why this matters: say you bet a team at -140 (break-even 58.3%) in the morning, assuming the starter plays and the team wins 58% of the time. Your expected result is roughly break-even, about -$0.57 per $100. Then the backup is confirmed, and your honest estimate drops to 52%. Now that same bet is worth about -$10.86 per $100. Betting before goalies are confirmed means taking that risk. Sometimes the early price is worth it. Often it isn't.

Back-to-backs and travel

The NHL schedule includes plenty of back-to-back games, and long road trips across time zones are part of life for Canadian teams, especially the western clubs. A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie, and tired legs show up late in games. Books know this, so it's usually priced in, but it's worth checking before you bet.

Injuries and line combinations

Losing a top-line centre or a number one defenceman matters, though usually less than losing the starting goalie. Line combinations from practice and the morning skate can hint at who's in and out.

Home ice

Home teams get the last line change, which lets the coach pick matchups, plus the familiar rink and no travel. The home edge in hockey is real but modest, and it's already in the price. Don't add it twice.

Public money

When a lot of money comes in on one side, books may move the line to balance their risk. In Canada, that often means the popular Canadian club is a little shorter than it should be on a busy Saturday night. There are seven Canadian NHL teams: the Canucks, Flames, Oilers, Jets, Maple Leafs, Senators and Canadiens. If one of them is your team, be extra honest with yourself before backing it.

Line shopping: the easiest edge you'll ever get

Different books post different prices on the same game. Getting the best number is the simplest way to improve your long-term results, and it doesn't need any hockey knowledge.

Say you back a team that genuinely wins 58% of the time, 100 times, $100 a bet.

Same team, same opinion, same results on the ice. The only difference is ten cents on the price, and it's the difference between a losing habit and a winning one. If you bet regularly, it's worth comparing a couple of books before you click.

Closing line value: are you beating the market?

The "closing line" is the final price before the puck drops. It reflects the most information: confirmed goalies, injuries and all the money that came in during the day. If you regularly get a better price than the close, you're probably making good bets, even if your results haven't caught up yet.

Example: you bet a team at -130 (implied 56.5%) in the morning. By puck drop it closes at -150 (implied 60.0%). You got the team at a price the market later decided was too generous by about 3.5 percentage points. One bet proves nothing, but a long record of beating the close is one of the best signs that your process is sound.

Live moneyline betting

Most books offer moneylines during the game, and prices move with every goal, penalty and period break. Live betting can be useful, but it's also where impulse bets happen.

Using the same illustrative model (home 3.2 expected goals, away 2.8, 52% in overtime), here's how the home team's moneyline chance changes if it falls behind 1-0:

A one-goal deficit is a big deal in hockey, and it gets bigger as the clock runs down. In real games, the trailing team pulls its goalie late, which adds a little comeback chance (and a little empty-net risk), so treat these as rough guides. The key habit: decide your number before you bet live. If the book's price is longer than your fair number, it might be worth a small bet. If you're just chasing a feeling, close the app.

Live tips that save money:

• Prices are suspended after goals and penalties. Don't spam the button; wait for the market to reopen.
• Streams can be behind the live data. The book often knows about a goal before you see it.
• Power plays matter. A two-minute power play changes scoring chances a lot, and live prices move with it.
• Margins are usually wider live than before the game, so you need a bigger edge.

Moneyline parlays

Combining two or more moneylines into a parlay multiplies the prices. It's a fun way to get a bigger payout, but the margins multiply too.

Example: a two-leg parlay with one team at -150 (1.667) and another at -140 (1.714). The parlay price is 1.667 × 1.714 = 2.857, about +186. If your honest chances are 58% and 56%, the parlay wins 0.58 × 0.56 = 32.5% of the time. Expected result: 0.325 × 2.857 − 1 = -7.2% of your stake. The same two teams bet as singles average about -3.7%. The parlay roughly doubled the cost of the same opinions.

That's not a reason never to bet a parlay. It's a reason to keep them small and occasional, and to make sure each leg is a bet you'd make on its own. Our parlay calculator shows the combined price and payout before you commit, and our page on parlay strategy covers same-game and multi-game parlays in more detail.

Bankroll and staking for moneyline bets

Hockey's randomness means bankroll management matters even more than in other sports. A simple approach:

• Set a bankroll you can afford to lose completely, separate from bills and savings.
• Bet in units, usually 1% to 2% of that bankroll per bet.
• Stake by risk, not by confidence. A common habit is to risk the same amount on every bet, or to aim to win the same amount on every bet. Pick one and stick to it.
• Don't chase losses. Doubling up after a bad night is how small losses become big ones.

A word on the Kelly method

Some bettors size stakes with the Kelly formula: stake fraction = (b × p − q) ÷ b, where b is the decimal price minus 1, p is your chance of winning and q is 1 − p. For an underdog at +140 (2.40) where you honestly think the chance is 45%, b = 1.40, so Kelly says (1.40 × 0.45 − 0.55) ÷ 1.40 = about 5.7% of your bankroll. That's aggressive, and it assumes your 45% is accurate, which it never quite is. Many people use a quarter of Kelly, about 1.4% here, which lands right in the usual unit range.

A worked example from start to finish

Let's put it together with a made-up Tuesday night game.

1. The line: Home -125 (1.80), Away +105 (2.05).
2. Implied chances: 125 ÷ 225 = 55.6% and 100 ÷ 205 = 48.8%. Total 104.3%, so the margin is about 4.3%.
3. Fair chances: 55.6 ÷ 104.3 = 53.2% home, 46.8% away.
4. Your read: the home team is on the second night of a back-to-back, and its backup goalie is confirmed. The away team is rested with its starter in. You estimate the away team wins 51% of the time.
5. Value check: the away team at 2.05 needs 48.8% to break even. Your 51% is above that. Expected result on $20: 0.51 × $21 − 0.49 × $20 = $10.71 − $9.80 = +$0.91, about +4.6% of the stake.
6. Shop: if another book has the away team at +110 (2.10), the expected result rises to 0.51 × $22 − 0.49 × $20 = +$1.42, about +7.1%.
7. Stake: one unit, recorded in your log with the price, the closing price and the result.

Notice what decided the bet: a price and an estimate. Not a gut feeling, not a jersey colour, not a revenge narrative.

Keeping a betting log

If you're going to bet moneylines regularly, keep a simple spreadsheet. Columns worth tracking:

• Date, teams and whether you backed the home or away side
• The price you took and the closing price
• Your estimated chance
• Stake and result
• Starting goalies and any notes (back-to-back, injuries)

After 100 or so bets, you'll see whether you tend to beat the closing line, whether you're better on favourites or underdogs, and whether certain situations (like betting before goalies are confirmed) are costing you.

Betting moneylines with crypto

Cloudbet, the book linked here, works with cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins like USDT. The moneyline itself works exactly the same way. A few things to keep in mind:

• Coin prices move. If you hold Bitcoin in your account, your bankroll in dollar terms changes even when you're not betting. Stablecoins pegged to the US dollar avoid most of that swing.
• Network fees apply to deposits and withdrawals and vary by coin and network.
• Track your stakes in one currency so your log makes sense.
• Taxes: in Canada, recreational gambling wins are generally not taxed, but buying, selling and swapping crypto can have its own tax consequences. Keep records and ask a tax professional about your own situation.

Common NHL moneyline mistakes

1. Thinking a big favourite is "free money." At -250 you need to win 71.4% of the time just to break even.
2. Forgetting the overtime rules. Moneyline and 60-minute bets settle differently. Read the market name.
3. Betting before checking the goalie. A backup start can wipe out your edge.
4. Betting with your heart. Your favourite Canadian team isn't more likely to win because you want it to.
5. Ignoring the price. A good team at a bad price is a bad bet.
6. Stacking favourites into parlays to make the payout look exciting. You multiply the margin along with the odds.
7. Chasing losses on the late games. Set a nightly limit and stick to it.
8. Judging yourself on a week. Hockey's randomness means even good bettors have long cold stretches.

Quick pre-bet checklist

• Do I know exactly what this market covers (overtime and shootout or 60 minutes)?
• Have I converted the price to a percentage and removed the margin?
• Do I have my own estimate, and is it clearly better than the fair price?
• Are both starting goalies confirmed?
• Is either team on a back-to-back or at the end of a long road trip?
• Have I compared prices at more than one book?
• Is my stake one unit or less?
• Am I betting because of value, or because it's my team?

Glossary of moneyline terms

Is moneyline betting legal in Canada?

Single-game sports betting has been legal in Canada since 2021, and each province decides how it's offered. Some provinces run their own betting sites, and Ontario has a regulated private market. Cloudbet is licensed in Curaçao and is not authorized by any Canadian province, and this site isn't for residents of Ontario or Alberta. You need to be 19 or older in most provinces, or 18 in Manitoba and Quebec. For the full picture, see our page on whether online betting is legal in Canada.

Bet responsibly

Hockey betting should be a bit of extra fun on game night, not a way to pay bills. Set a budget before the puck drops, never bet money you need, and take a break if it stops being fun. If betting is causing problems for you or someone close to you, free and confidential help is available: Gambling Support BC at 1-888-795-6111, Jeu : aide et référence in Quebec at 1-800-461-0140, or dial 211 anywhere in Canada to find local support. Read more on our responsible gambling page.

The bottom line

The NHL moneyline is simple on the surface: pick the winner. Underneath, it's all percentages. Learn to read American odds, convert them to a chance, strip out the margin, and compare that with your own honest estimate. Know that overtime and the shootout are included, and that they pull favourites toward a coin flip. Wait for goalies, shop for the best price, keep stakes small and keep a log. Do that, and you'll be betting like someone who understands the numbers, instead of someone hoping the jersey wins.